Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals

Reference

GUIMARÃES, R. M. et al. Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals. Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, v. 53, p. e20200469, Sep. 2020.

Abstract

Introduction

Monitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists.

Methods

We used segmented (joinpoint) regression analysis to describe the behavior of COVID-19 infections in Brazilian capital cities.

Results

All capitals showed an exponential or a near-exponential increase in cases through May. A decline in reported cases was subsequently noted in 20 cities but was only significant for 8 (29.6%) and was followed in two by a renewed increase.

Conclusions

Caution is warranted when considering the relaxation of restrictions.